Bloomberg seeing disastrous Super Tuesday results in states with early returns after spending a quarter of a billion dollars ... (DDHQ). Follow along for live results here. The forecast gives the greatest chance, 42%, to no candidate winning a majority of delegates during the nominating season, with Sanders at a 38% chance to win a majority and Biden at just 16%. However, raw vote totals in the two primaries held so far, New Hampshire and South Carolina, were much more similar to higher-turnout 2008 than lower-turnout 2016. The Democratic primaries were mostly uncontested as incumbent President Barack Obama was the assured nominee.. This site uses cookies and external scripts to improve your experience. The most interesting place, and the state where Biden’s Southern defenses are the shakiest, is the place where the South meets the West: Texas. For the amount of money Bloomberg has spent, this would still be a poor result. We rely on readers like you to uphold a free press. Sanders was projected to win the most delegates in California, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Maine, Utah, and Vermont, while neither Bloomberg nor Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts was projected to win the most delegates in any state. If Biden hits 15% statewide in either Massachusetts or Minnesota, it will be a victory for him and might be a sign that he is gaining some national momentum from South Carolina. Biden’s task on Tuesday is protecting the six Southern states from incursions by Sanders (and perhaps others, including the unproven Michael Bloomberg). Connect with friends faster than ever with the new Facebook app. The new European data protection law requires us to inform you of the following before you use our website: We use cookies and other technologies to customize your experience, perform analytics and deliver personalized advertising on our sites, apps and newsletters and across the Internet based on your interests. One of the biggest comes in the most valuable state voting, California. DDHQ News. Follow Business Insider Australia on Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, and Instagram. Due to the region’s smaller population, the South/the Democrats could only win when they made inroads into the North. See Other Political Commentary by Kyle Kondik. 2018 Midterm Dashboard. You can follow our results for the presidential, Senate, and House races here. Bloomberg spent roughly a quarter of a billion dollars on advertising in Super Tuesday states alone. Explore our 2020 presidential Super Tuesday dashboard . We use cookies and other technologies to customize your experience, perform analytics and deliver personalized advertising on our sites, apps and newsletters and across the Internet based on your interests. Views expressed in this column are those of the author, not those of Rasmussen Reports. You also agree to our Terms of Service. Follow him on Twitter @jmilescoleman. According to FiveThirtyEight’s averages of the latest polling data, Sen.Bernie Sanders led the polls in California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Texas, Utah, Virginia, and his home state of Vermont. We don’t expect Bloomberg to win any states on Tuesday, although he may surprise in a state or two where there isn’t much polling data and where black voters aren’t quite as numerous as some other Southern states, like Arkansas or Southern-adjacent Oklahoma. 2020 Super Tuesday Results. (Biden also should win a landslide in Mississippi on March 10). Follow our latest stories on different elections around the country. Here's what it was like. October 30, 2020. Biden was also the projected winner of the North Carolina and Alabama primaries, according to DDHQ. . You may change your settings at any time. Mike Bloomberg spent roughly a quarter of a billion dollars on advertising in Super Tuesday states alone, but that has not translated into big wins for the former New York City mayor. This article will continue to be updated. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. DDHQ News; Create Account Welcome to DDHQ Election Results. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data. Here’s where Biden finds himself disadvantaged by the South vs. North dichotomy, because the West plays a role here too, and that may be Sanders’ strongest region. Texas, a dividing line between South and West, will test both of their appeal. Miles Coleman, Biden Lead Looks Firmer as Midwest Moves His Way By Kyle Kondik and J. and Decision Desk HQ ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. This week The Harvard Data Science Review released its special edition on Predicting the 2020 Elections. In the longer term, Biden needs to demonstrate viability in the Midwest — something his performance in Iowa distinctly did not show. Super Tuesday in 2012 took place on March 6, 2012, totaling 419 delegates (18.3% of the total) in 10 states in the Republican primaries. MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki suggested some ranges on Sunday: A great scenario for Biden, Kornacki estimated, would have him coming out of Super Tuesday just about 60 delegates behind Sanders; a great one for Sanders would have him up by 400 delegates over Biden. Miles Coleman. — There is some indication their battle could break on regional lines, with Sanders fighting for inroads in the South and Biden for access to the North. Their projections for the Super Tuesday states, and what the delegate math might look like based on those projections, are shown in Tables 2 and 3. We think the forecasters’ models as opposed to the poll aggregates are closer to reality based on South Carolina. Most states allocate their delegates by congressional districts, but some, like Texas and New Jersey, use state legislative districts instead. So a majority or more of the vote may very well still be out, even if overall turnout doesn’t reach the 2008 heights. On Super Tuesday alone, former Vice President Joe Biden accumulated at least 408 delegates; Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont 344; former Mayor Mike Bloomberg of New York City 46; Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts 26; and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii 1. Tom Steyer, who invested especially heavily in the state, saw some success in rural counties, and Pete Buttigieg had pockets of strength in some suburban neighborhoods of Charleston, but Sanders was the runner-up in every congressional district. Biden’s task on Tuesday is protecting the six Southern states from incursions by Sanders (and perhaps others, including the unproven Michael Bloomberg). By Stephen Green 2020-03-03T18:55:37. chat comments ... (Drunkblog continues below the DDHQ live results feed.) Overall, the firm Political Data Inc. reported as of Sunday that about 1.4 million Democrats have returned their ballots so far. J. See our Privacy Policy and Third Party Partners to learn more about the use of data and your rights. Meanwhile, Sen. Bernie Sanders won in Vermont with 51.73% of the vote with 10.18% of precincts reporting, with Bloomberg failing to cross the 15% threshold in that state as well. We took a 4-hour flight on the new Delta Airbus jet that Boeing tried to keep out of the US. This content is currently not available in your region. 2018 Midterm Dashboard. Bloomberg has spent over half a billion dollars on advertising in the 2020 race, tapping into his roughly $55 billion fortune in the hopes of propelling himself to the 2020 Democratic nomination. Decision Desk HQ 2,076 views. In the 2016 primary, Sanders showed some strength in the Appalachian-flavored Upstate region, and was largely able to build on that this time. Comments about this content should be directed to the author or syndicate. Follow our latest stories on different elections around the country. Follow our latest stories on different elections around the country. Elections Returns, Analysis and Projections. While there are significant blocs of black voters in many Northern states, the states with the most significant black voting shares are generally all Southern (particularly if one includes Southern-adjacent Maryland and the District of Columbia). Biden’s big victory in South Carolina came at a bad time for the free-spending former New York City mayor because it re-established Biden as the main alternative to Sanders — a role Bloomberg has been trying to take for himself.