Super Bowl V. Christian McCaffrey's return makes the Panthers formidable, as the front office restructured the offensive line. The same model expects Wentz to improve considerably off last season but not all the way back to pre-2020 levels. Im more likely to become a billionaire than the Texans are to finish above .500, much less win the Super Bowl this season. The poor AFC South is the only reason theyre not lower. With a 19% chance to win the Super Bowl, the Chiefs are a bit above average for the league's favorite heading into the season. The Vikings have made the playoffs every odd-year season since coach Mike Zimmer took over in 2014, which bodes well for them in 2021. The Jaguars are still going to be exciting to watch in 2021 as Urban Meyer is the best college coach to enter the NFL in years, having arguably the most talented quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck in Trevor Lawrence. The Panthers and Patriots gave us the most exciting fourth quarter in Super Bowl history, combining for five scores, including an 85-yard pass by Jake Delhomme, which remains a Super Bowl record, and Adam Vinatieris game-winning kick as time expired. This isn't entirely a reflection on them, though FPI is never particularly bullish on rookie quarterbacks. They had an outstanding defense, and thats what won them the Los Angeles Chargers +3300 (bet $10 to win $340 total), The world loves the Chargers after Justin Herberts incredible rookie year (record-setting 31 TDs). The "Greatest Show On Turf" was the potential dynasty derailed by New England Patriots. Watson led the NFL in passing yards and yards per attempt, carrying an offense that finished 31st in the league in rushing. Cole Beasley is also a reliable target for Allen, who does as much damage from the outside as well as the slot. However, like most teams on this list, the Steelers had one glaring deficiency: the passing game. The 1970s Steelers gave us one last entertaining Super Bowl before its dynasty ended. Another Broncos blowout. The worst of the Bills Super Bowl teams at 115, but Jim Kelly and Thurman Thomas still elevated them offensively. In the Super Bowl, Pittsburgh managed just 16 points and won a defensive slugfest 16-6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +650 (bet $10 to win $75 total), Yes, I just wrote that 20-0 is in play. A 15-1 team, losing to the Atlanta Falcons by a single touchdown, the 2015 Carolina Panthers were a dominant offensive force with an underrated defense. But Elways scramble which ended with him being helicoptered in the air remains the most memorable visual from the game. Four of those teams made the playoffs last year and Miami won 10 games. It was never even close as the Seahawks dominated from the opening snap. Denver Broncos +5500 (bet $10 to win $560 total), Yes, this is irrationally high. Zaven Collins has strong NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year capabilities and Isaiah Simmons is expected to take a huge step in his second year. Going 7-2 in one-score games last year will regress. Let us first acknowledge that four future Hall of Famers were drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers in 1974 (Lynn Swann, Jack Lambert, John Stallworth and Mike Webster). Tom Brady also led a top offense in his MVP season, finishing with a 133 regular-season record. On footballs biggest stage we want games featuring memorable teams, star players, plays that well never forget and compelling storylines. They were the 3rd best scoring offense in the league, but 28th on defense. However, New York went just 10-6 in the regular season. On the other side of the ball, Tom Brady & Co. are projected to be the No. Even the worst of the second-place teams showed they could have won it all. The Bills could not close the deal in this four-year span, and most frustrating of all, all these teams were pretty well-balanced. Throw in Trent Dilfer leading the other offense and a game that was never competitive, and this is easily the worst Super Bowl of all-time. Despite the memorable moments, this game was a bit of a letdown with two Hall of Fame quarterbacks not putting on the offensive show we expected. The Cowboys first Super Bowl win was a snooze-fest. Im all aboard the Trevor Lawrence bandwagon., 8. Please check your email for a confirmation. US residents can opt out of "sales" of personal data. It did earn him a bunch of money. New head coach Arthur Smith has some work to do this summer. That decision is based on two factors: Garoppolo is generally believed to be the favorite over rookie No. Not to mention, Reggie White wrecking people on defense. Kansas City would be favored by 1.3 points over Tampa Bay on a neutral field if the teams were to suit up for a rematch tomorrow, FPI believes. First place on this list scored 140 points in my grading system. Super Bowl Buffalo also addedEmmanuel Sanders to the mix, making the passing game even more formidable. Not every team epitomizes greatness and dominance when it is victorious in the Super Bowl. While that's a long shot with Kansas City in the conference, both the Ravens and Browns have at least a 10% shot to pull it off. In one of our 20,000 sims, the Eagles took the crown at 5-11-1. 6-keys: media/spln/nfl/reg/free/stories, at He's a key piece in guiding Tennessee to its first championship. Unless Tua Tagovailoa makes a Josh Allen-type leap and the offensive line improves, theres just no shot at the Super Bowl. Here they are ranked: It was a lot of fun to research these teams to remember just how good they were their respective seasons. Arizona was on its way to the playoffs before Kyler Murray's shoulder injury limited him late in the season, hurting a potential All-Pro campaign. This 97 Cardinals team scored 78. Seattle came in with the leagues best defense. One of the bigger mismatches in Super Bowl history, this one gets bonus points for being the first one and the Chiefs actually keeping things interesting for 30 minutes after going into the half trailing by only four points. This 1969 Minnesota Vikings team was elite and ranked first for both points scored and points against. Matt Rhule is building something in Carolina as he enters his second year, taking a chance he can resurrect Sam Darnold's career. And the NFC South doesn't have any other teams ranked in FPI's top 10. A 4.47 shuttle is extremely rare. Shaun Alexander had 1,880 rushing yards and 27 touchdowns.Shaun Alexander had 1,880 rushing yards and 27 touchdowns! Self care and ideas to help you live a healthier, happier life. I'd argue their offense was a little more productive, but that being said, the 1990 team still beat them out. With the best defense in the game, this 124 Steelers team could not stop a hot road team in the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers. Terry Bradshaw and Franco Harris took over the game from there. It has happened 8 times to 7 different teams. Interestingly enough, not only has no team won 3 in a row, not a single team has ever made it back to (Hey, at least it worked out for them with Trevor Lawrence being available.). What makes a great Super Bowl? The worst of the Bills Super Bowl teams at 115, but Jim Kelly and Thurman Thomas still elevated them offensively. Losing three offensive linemen is gonna sting. Buffalo is on the doorstep of reaching the league championship game, thanks to the emergence of Josh Allen as one of the game's best quarterbacks. The Super Bowl has been around 55 years, yet more than a third of the league has never hoisted a Vince Lombardi Trophy. Super Bowl The game that gave us all of those 28-3 jokes. The team that benefited from Norwood's egregious error, the New York Giants, was not particularly exceptional. Brown (+1800) Miles Sanders, RB, Eagles (+2200) DeVonta Smith, WR, Eagles (+3000) Haason Reddick, LB, Eagles (+3000) Chris Jones, DT, Chiefs (+4000) Article. Matt Rhule is a coach whose stock Im buying low.. I'll take my chances on a 1-in-15 shot that the Niners put all the pieces back together and raise the Lombardi in February. San Francisco's three games based on last year's standings are against the Eagles, Bengals and Falcons, who all rank 24th or worse in FPI. The game did not feature nearly as dramatic an ending as the rest of the top-10, but it was a game full of Hall of Famers all playing at a high level. They were also had to win all their road playoff games, which during the time, was unheard of. Twenty-two women have said in lawsuits that Watson sexually assaulted them or engaged in sexually inappropriate behavior during massage sessions. Los Angeles Rams +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total). 1 pick than the 2021 Houston Texans, at 24%. Gruden did bring the Raiders back from almost a decade of ineptness and he did win a Super Bowl against the Raiders, but the rest of his career he was pretty much a .500 coach. San Francisco 49ers +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total), Tricky to put San Francisco here given the uncertainty at QB, but theres no way they actually start 21-year-old Trey Lance, right?. The Titans thrust themselves into Super Bowl contention with the offseason addition of Julio Jones, a massive upgrade over departed free agent Corey Davis. to win The game was so bad that the MVP award did not even go to a member of the winning team. For starters, the NFC has nine road games this season, so a team from that conference was always likely to occupy the top spot. What was the worst NFL defensive team to win a Super Bowl? Peyton Mannings struggles reinforced the notion that he could be great in the regular season but collapsed in the playoffs. At 10-4-1, this Broncos team was better balanced than the '86 team. The 11 Worst Quarterbacks To Win A Super Bowl Tennessee's offense is going to have to do most of the work in order to repeat at AFC South champions. TEAM DATE ROUND TM OPP RESULT W TD 1DWN OFF OPP OFF 3DWN% 4DWN% Los Angeles Rams: 2/13/2022: Super Bowl: LAR @ CIN. Dolphins fullback Larry Csonka plows between Vikings LB Jeff Siemon (50) and safety Paul Krause for one of his two touchdowns in the Dolphins 24-7 Super Bowl VIII win. Kansas City Chiefs +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total), Its really hard to get to the Super Bowl. Stroud, Will Levis, Anthony Richardson don't lack confidence at NFL combine, Bettors are backing Bears, Lions, Jets to make, win Super Bowl, NFLPA report cards show link between player-friendly coaches and winning, Georgia's Nolan Smith turns heads with blazing 40 at NFL combine, Alabama QB Bryce Young confident in abilities, downplays questions about frame, Stroud opposes Bears drafting him, defends Fields: 'That's his team', Sharp: Ravens have themselves to blame for not getting Lamar Jackson help, 49ers offseason preview: Potential Super Bowl team must figure out QB spot. Wait, Dilfer isn't iconic. BUT this 14-2 Atlanta Falcons team was no slouch. ELEVEN! Even if Kevin Dyson had pulled a Michael Jordan in Space Jam and reached the ball over the goal line, the game would have gone to overtime. All Rights Reserved. Trent Dilfer. The agony of defeat. Brett Favre had 35 passing touchdowns and Dorsey Levens ran for 1,435 yards. Keep in mind, the Larry Fitzgerald touchdown catch (pictured above) was to go ahead with 2:37 left in the game. They had an unimpressive 115 record, but the 2002 Raiders were a well-balanced, finely tuned machine. 32. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. The Bengals should be better, but they aren't close to competing for a championship yet -- especially residing in the AFC North. We've been projecting preseason chances to get the top draft picks only since 2018, but no team has entered the year more likely to walk away from the No. In a 122 season, this team only surrendered more than 20 points once during the regular season. Houston would be much higher on this list if Deshaun Watson's future with the team wasn't uncertain. Had Rodgers simply decided to retire rather than suit up, Green Bay's chances to make the playoffs would have dropped from 70% to 24%, and their Super Bowl chances would have dropped from 6% to 0.2%. Give them five years to become a dynasty. So why are they lower value-wise? Fran Tarkenton is one of many players on this list that deserved a Super Bowl ring. FPI is able to reconcile that issue to determine a more accurate SOS. Pittsburgh Steelers +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total), Their win total is 8.5, yet Mike Tomlin has never finished under .500 as coach of the Steelers. As a Jets fan, I could build a flimsy case for the Jets to make the playoffs; I cant even fathom them having a shot at the Super Bowl. In a season without a normal offseason due to the pandemic, the 142 defending champs looked like easy Super Bowl favorites. Kind of pains me to say it, but it was the 2011 Giants. They shipped 400 points that year in the regular season and normally that leads to a losing What was the worst defense to win the Super Bowl? : r/nfl To show you how wildly that fluctuates, in those categories the year before, Miami ranked 29th, 24th, and 27th.. Allen set the Bills' franchise record for passing yards in a season (4,544) and passing touchdowns (37), finishing with a 107.2 passer rating. From Devin Hester to an elite defense led by Brian Urlacher, this team earned their spot on the biggest stage. Search, watch, and cook every single Tasty recipe and video ever - all in one place! Bradshaw would go on to complete just 67 passes for 785 yards, seven touchdowns and eight interceptions in his limited action. The Los Angeles Rams won in Super Bowl LVI versus the Bengals on February 13, 2022. Defensively, they were 22nd in points scored against, and it showed in the Super Bowl. This might be controversial among Bills fans, but this team was just as good as the year before. FPI, which launched Monday, is a forward-looking projection model that includes ratings and projections for every team, from projected win-loss records to percentages to win each division. This was a great Super Bowl, but can we stop saying the Titans were one yard short of winning it? Houston Texans +20000 (bet $10 to win $2010 total), Lowest win total on the board, uncertainty at QB, and a defense that cant stop a nose bleed.. Nobody has a tougher September schedule: vs Seattle, vs the Rams, at Tennessee, at Miami, at Baltimore. Id say so, yes.. Arizona has the potential to shock the NFL and win 11-plus games, emerging victorious in a strong NFC West. Reggie White was downright unblockable. And yet it was Desmond Howard who took home the MVP award thanks to his game-clinching kickoff return. They went 7-3 in one-score games last year and led the NFL in turnover margin (+11). The Lions are in the first year of a rebuild, as Dan Campbell looks to change the culture of a franchise that has just one playoff win over the last 63 years. worst Super Bowl Malcolm Butlers game-winning interception remains the best ending in Super Bowl history. Tough division, and they open with three of four on the road. Los Angeles was a heavy underdog but actually took a lead into the fourth quarter. Jalen Hurts will not pull a By contrast, FPI is bullish on Cleveland's offense -- which ranks third in the league behind the Chiefs and Packers but ahead of the Bills -- but gives the Browns the 18th-best defense. The team had a 142 record and the best offense in the league averaging about 34 points per game, Joe Theismann and Jon Riggins were stars. Mahomes becomes the first quarterback to win the regular-season NFL most-valuable-player award and the Super Bowl in the same season in 23 years. It featured the great comeback, the only overtime in Super Bowl history, not one but two spectacular catches and a fascinating chess match between the Falcons and Patriots coaching staffs. This time, he didnt need a miracle catch to beat New England thanks to his sublime pass to Mario Manningham on the game-winning drive. A 124 record and a solid defense? This was actually the closest one they played. They had one of the league's best defenses that year. Four NFL teams the Browns, Lions, Jaguars, and Texans have never appeared in the Super Bowl. Granted, having Simms on the field would have undoubtedly bolstered the Giants offensive attack in the postseason, but this is not a countdown of "what ifs" and "should have beens.". Denver got out to a 10-0 lead before Washington dropped a Super Bowl-record 35 points in the second quarter on the Broncos defense. It truly is a remarkable tale, but the Patriots were nothing special on the way there. Ranking 12 teams that never won a Super Bowl by best chance Super Bowl VIII: And they should open 2-0, meaning their odds will get even shorter., Too much turnover on the offensive line for my liking, though, as 37-year old Aaron Rodgers will open the season with three new starters., 7. Is this a bad thing?No, but it does not exactly make for one of the most dominant championship teams of all time. This is one of the worst rosters in the league, but Houston (at least) has a chance to win games if Watson plays. 27. A 14-win team with a top 10 offense and defense. worst Ill assume you didnt watch the Tennessee Titans +2800 (bet $10 to win $290 total), Probably the favorites in the division given the Colts' injuries, but Im leery of taking the bait. The 10 Worst NFL Teams to Ever Win a Super Bowl - Sportscasting New Orleans Saints +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total), The most puzzling number on the board, as Im much lower on the Saints than this.. 55) Super Bowl XLVIII (2013) The 2013 Seahawks were able to take advantage of this game to solidify themselves as an all-time NFL defense. Arizona still needs more help in the secondary, but defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has man-cover corners to fit his scheme. Replying to @GoBirds___ and @FanDuel. Baltimore is well balanced, with a projected offense and defense (and special teams!) Throw in Trent Dilfer leading the other offense and a game that was never competitive, and this is easily the worst Super Bowl of all-time. This team just wasn't ready yet. FPI is working under the assumption that Deshaun Watson will not play for the Texans this season. To handle the uncertainty in the timing of Wentz's return, FPI gives the QB a very small chance to play in Week 1 and gradually increases the chance of his return until Week 8 -- spanning the range of the recovery timeline laid out last week by coach Frank Reich. The 2000 Baltimore Ravens featured one of the most stifling defenses ever assembled, allowing only 970 rushing yards all season and five rushing touchdowns. The 2005 Steelers are a prime example. The Falcons still have Matt Ryan at quarterback, who has thrown for the most passing yards in the league over the last three years and has a emerging star in Calvin Ridley and a game-changing tight end in rookie first-rounderKyle Pitts. It has to be the 2016 Atlanta Falcons. Up 28-3 at the end of the third quarter, they couldn't hold off the Patriots in the biggest game of the year Listen below and follow the Pick Six podcast for a daily dose of everything you need to follow pro football. The defense ranked just 24th in the league that year, and a questionable call known as the "Tuck Rule" against the Oakland Raiders in the divisional round helped the Patriots reach the Super Bowl when many believed they did not belong. You may have been expecting one of the more famous Super Bowl results to land a little higher on the list. A smart strategy? They face an NFL-high three teams coming off a bye week. The Bears defensive dominance made a 36-point laugher worth watching. That was by design. In the end, FPI's projections for the Colts are not all that bad; they have a 44% chance to win the AFC South (second to the Titans) and a 59% shot to make the postseason. Aaron Rodgers capped off a brilliant playoff run with a masterful performance against one of the leagues best defenses. Keep in mind, those numbers assume there is some chance Wentz plays in each of these games, particularly the later ones. Yes, the New York Giants knocked off the 18-0 New England Patriots. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. Which one is the most likely to remove itself from this dubious list? The 2007 New England Patriots won every game (160) and did so in tremendous fashion. If the Kansas City Chiefs didn't have a generational quarterback in Patrick Mahomes and a Hall of Fame head coach in Andy Reid, the Bills would have reached their first Super Bowl in 27 years. They faced perfection, so how can you be harsh when talking about them? QB | RB | WR | TE This Bills team should have won a Super Bowl and it is hard to believe looking back. 20. Stefon Diggs is one of the game's best wide receivers and Gabriel Davis is one of the underrated young wideouts in the league. At 133, this defense was nasty by forcing 31 turnovers. They went 3-0.. Cincinnati Bengals +10000 (bet $10 to win $1010 total), The Bengals will be improved, but theyre not higher on this list for three reasons:. There are no arguments to be made: This is the greatest Super Bowl of all-time. This game will be decided at quarterback, and the daring superstar who joins Brady as the only quarterback to appear in three Super Bowls in his first six seasons is the pick here. If not for the dramatic ending, this game may have finished last on this list. The Tennessee Titans are one of 12 teams in the NFL to have never won a Super Bowl, and according to one writer, they are the furthest away from doing so of those dozen teams. Because there is a salary cap. When teams win the players want raises forcing teams to lose some players. This is what is happening to Green Bay an 1 seed in the AFC (32%) and reach the Super Bowl (30%). A four-game stretch bridging October and November vs Bills, vs Chiefs, at Colts, at Rams should seal their fate. WebPer Reuters, the NFL issued a cease-and-desist order to a Las Vegas law firm over a Super Bowl commercial featuring Raiders DE Maxx Crosby. Complete team-by-team FPI projections Now the Colts will need to stay afloat while he recovers from foot surgery, which likely will cause him to miss the beginning of the season. By Jason McIntyreFOX Sports Betting Analyst. This game gave us one of the most iconic plays in Super Bowl history: John Riggins taking a 4th-and-one run to the house to help seal Joe Gibbs first Super Bowl win. If you look at the teams in this stratosphere, theres a lot of continuity at the coordinator positions and, obviously, head coach and QB. Will head coach Zac Taylor actually commit to the run and take the pressure off of Burrow? It remains the worst run defense in NFL history. 28. Detroit has a young and talented offensive line (average age 24 years old) to protect new quarterback Jared Goffwho is looking to resurrect his career after getting traded by the Los Angeles Rams. 6. The Bucs, despite not being quite on Kansas City's level, remain the favorite in the NFC and are the only other team to cross double digits in terms of chances to win the Super Bowl. Their defense back in the day was shutting teams down and they had great leadership in Fran Tarkenton. If Lance does beat out Garoppolo, that would be a sign he is comparable to the veteran, and thus a downgrade might not make sense. Miami Dolphins +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total), Miami led the NFL in two categories that they are unlikely to duplicate: takeaways (29) and 3rd down defense (31%); they were also seventh in red zone defense. Check out the full strength of schedule rankings here. A 97 team that wasn't top 10 in anything really. A 142 season, and the best offense in the league led by Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt, and Isaac Bruce. The Buffalo Bills are coming off their first conference championship game appearance since 1993 while the Cleveland Browns won their first playoff game since 1995. Their defense only gave up 9.5 points per game in a 14-game season. Denver came in with a historically good offense. Rookie head coaches and rookie quarterbacks don't typically generate Super Bowl contenders. The 1991 Redskins might be the greatest team in NFL history, which bumps this game up a few spots.